First up, apologies for another super late blog post.
Dollar wise the past week I continued to run pretty bad, about another $3k under aiev and being on the wrong end of cooler spots constantly. However I came pretty close to making my goal, which was to at least breakeven on the month in aiev. In fact October would have been a $10k month if I hadn't run $8k under aiev, which is pretty awesome.
I also feel like despite a small frame of reference I've been running insanely badly in cooler spots etc. It is very possible given my very small amount of experience that I am just running normally in these spots and was running insanely good for the first two months, but I doubt it. I don't want to turn this in to any kind of whining, but just looking at hands I feel like I'm just running in to that 2-5% of peoples' ranges that outflops me a lot more than what would seem normal.
VPP wise I had a great week, and not only got past 800k for the year, but also got to within 30k of pace. It definitely feels good to be on the final straight.
VPP/Pace = 804,368 / 834,247
$Poker = $62,457
I remember Galfond saying HEM AIEV was a pretty meaningless stat. I take it you don't agree?
ReplyDeleteThoughts on ChicagoJoey trying to get something like 650K vpps in 2 months at .25/.5 PLO, seem insane to me.
Nice work and congrats, see you soon, GL down the homestretch!
yeah i definitely agree, thats what i was saying in the second paragraph. i do think its a commonly misunderstood comment of galfonds tho.
ReplyDeletewhat the aiev line does is reduce the signal to noise ratio. the gap between the aiev line and the winning line is pure noise. however, particularly in plo, there is still a ridiculous amount of noise in the aiev line.
one such example is when you have say JT87 vs obvious aces in 4 or 5 bet pots with enough behind to fold. the money is in and your decisions are automatic, if you flop a pair you are getting it in as a coinflip or marginal fav/loser, if you flop say 226 you are folding out. the flops are easy to identify and play, but the variance is in no way reflected in the aiev line.
what i was saying in the second para is based on how i have run in other months this year, i would guesstimate i actually ran ~$15-$20k under actual expectation, despite only running ~$9k under my aiev line (i double checked and it was closer to 9 than 8).
all i can say is gl to joey, he has visa issues atm tho, but i really hope he gets it worked out and makes it, its definitely doable for him.
for the record i think i most likely ran >$20k above expectation in my first two months of plo (>$40k above total).
ReplyDeleteim not kidding myself in to thinking that what happened early on was normal. just in case that comes across in my analysis of my recent run.
Cool. Thanks for the solid response.
ReplyDeleteCliffs: HEM AIEV is overrated, but better than nothing.
Hope you don't mind me hassling you too much, GL with it, home stretch, 60 days, cruising now :)